We have discontinued our daily collection and analysis of state and county reported data related to the Covid-19 coronavirus. This information is still available from state and local health agencies, national and local media, and the CDC. This change will allow us more time to do what we do best: assisting our clients in solving complex problems with actionable insights that lead to growth. We will periodically present new Coronavirus briefs and reports that further validate scientific findings or when we discover new insights that require further exploration through advanced analytics.
Analysts from Perception Health collect data on the coronavirus from U.S. state health agencies every day. Over time, this data illustrates interesting trends, especially in light of the states' different plans for reopening businesses, entertainment venues, houses of worship, and more. Check the numbers for your state here.
June 30, 2020 - Another bad day
Today was the second worst day of reported cases in the United States with 43,406 new cases. Prior to June 26, this would have been the worst day ever. According to recent numbers, things have obviously gotten quite bad. Many states still are sitting in the sub-10 range for tests per cases, indicating that we're likely to see near-record gains in case numbers this month.
In the near future, the U.S. death rate may be the most interesting metric to follow. The last time the U.S. reported this many cases, the nation also reported 1,000-2,000 deaths a day. Today there were "only" 586 deaths, still too many, but nowhere near the fatality rate we once observed. Let's hope for the death rate to continue to decline.
June 29, 2020 - Higher and higher
The United States added 38,034 new Covid-19 cases, the seventh straight day of reporting 35,000+ new cases, the longest streak to date. Other metrics are just as dire: The U.S. average number of cases added per day is at its highest, the U.S. average for tests per cases is at its lowest, the median tests per cases continues to fall, and the number of active cases just tied its previous high. Signs point to these high numbers continuing at least for the next week.
June 28, 2020
Today marks six straight days of 35,000+ new cases across the United States, breaking the previous record of five straight days set April 7-11. For the past 14 days the U.S. reported 446,212 confirmed cases, the second highest number of active cases since April 13 when the U.S. reported 466,315 new cases. If the data from June 29 is typical of last week's numbers, the final week of June will be the highest reported week of new Covid-19 cases since the outbreak.
June 27, 2020
The United States added 37,398 new cases today. In terms of volume, Florida and Texas continue to pile up huge numbers. When you compare the states by new cases added per 100,000 population, Florida added 45.1 cases per 100K population, second in the nation only to Arizona’s 49.7 new cases per 100K population. Texas was much lower at 19.5 new cases per 100K population. Here in Tennessee, the state had a relatively good day with only 728 new cases being reported statewide (10.6 new cases per 100K population) alongside 406 recoveries. Those 728 cases is a considerable improvement from the steady stream of 1,000+ new cases per day that the Volunteer state had reported for much of last week.
June 26, 2020 - The Next Worst Day
The United States reached a new daily high, reporting 44,984 new cases across the country. Many states also saw their highest days ever. Florida and Texas, in particular, typify what's happening in many parts of the U.S. Florida set a new daily record of 5,511 new cases, smashing its previous high of 4,124. Texas added 5,707 new cases. Both states have steep upward climbs in the number of new cases compared to projections. All these increases as the Tests per Cases ratio continues to drop across the nation - a harbinger of more new cases in the coming days.
June 25, 2020 - The worst day to date
In data analysis, we let the numbers speak for themselves. There's no "sugar coating" or "spinning" this fact: Today the United States reported +38,861 new cases (+1.64% growth) of Covid-19, the single highest daily number since the onset of the coronavirus. To make matters worse, despite the increase in testing (now 9.1% of the U.S. population), the number of new cases are outpacing the testing. This lowers the Tests per Cases ratio (explained below), which means there are likely many more cases not yet tested for and diagnosed. Mask up, America, the first wave is still here, moving westward.
June 24, 2020 - Is it April again?
Today the United States added a staggering 35,791 new Covid-19 cases, making this past week comparable to the worst weeks of April. The states reporting high totals were the usual ones, Texas and Florida, with both posting record high single day gains, as did Arkansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. All these high reported numbers comes in spite the fact that there is still very low testing (only 8.9% of U.S. population), which means this trend won't break anytime soon. Especially troublesome is the low numbers of Tests per Cases for the following states. Any number below 10 is considered very low and heralds future days with high numbers as more tests are completed.
States with very low ratios - Tests per Diagnosed Cases
June 23, 2020 - A Very Bad Day
The United States gained 34,922 new cases, on par with the worst of the days in April. Much of this growth was driven by explosive growth in California (+3.7% +6,764 new cases), Texas (+4.8% +5,489 new cases), and Arizona (+6.6% +3,593 new cases) - all setting significantly higher single day gain records. For most states currently spiking, the tests per case rate is very low, which is quite troubling since extremely low tests per case is an indication of under-testing of the population. It also implies there are many cases yet to be tested, which will like cause case counts to continue to rise. Arizona reported 3.4 tests per case, one of the lowest values seen ever in the U.S., comparable to the worst of the worst days reported by New York in early April. California's ratio of 12.6 is somewhat promising that the state may be getting their outbreak under control. Any score under 10 is worrisome and indicates a very likely chance that daily reporting will continue to spike for the foreseeable future.
June 21, 2020 - Good News and Bad News and More Bad News and Still More Bad News
Good News: After two days of topping 30,000 new cases, each day, the United States fell back below 30,000 new cases. Bad News: It's the second highest number of cases added on a Sunday. Remember, Sunday and Monday are significantly lower reporting days compared to other days. Today was topped only by Sunday, April 12, which preceded the second highest week ever of new cases. Many states do not report their full results over the weekend, and some don't report anything at all. Look for the next two days’ data to be some of the highest days we've seen since April. More Bad News: California and Texas continued their steady clip for cases gained. Texas is on track to double their statewide cases every 20 days or so. California is projected to double every 30 days. Nationwide, our total number of cases is on track to double every 60 days. Still More Bad News: Arizona's case count continues to explode. Today was a +5.2% growth day with +2,592 new cases. Florida follows in second at +4.4% growth, adding +4,124 cases. Only just at new cases added, Florida added the most cases nationwide, topping Texas and California.
June 20, 2020
Today the U.S. reported more than 30,000 new cases for the second day in a row, the first time since mid-April. California posted its highest single day new cases with +3,890 (+2.3%), as did Texas with +4,430 (4.3%). Arizona posted its second highest day with +3,109 (+6.7%)
June 19, 2020
The United States posted its first single day count of new cases over 30,000 since May with +30,371 (+1.4%). Arizona had its highest day ever with +3,246 (+7.5%) and is the fastest grower in nation. Other states of note are Arkansas +703 (+5.0%), California +3,776 (+2.3%), Florida +3,822 (+4.4%), its highest ever single day, Tennessee +1,188 (+3.6%), its highest ever single day, and Texas +3,454 cases (+3.5%) still experiencing highest ever 7-day gain.
June 18, 2020
Arizona is on an absolute tear. Today marks 21 straight days where the number of cases added each day is higher than the day before. This is almost unprecedented for all of our data on Covid-19 and is certainly unique for any state at this point. Needless to say, they are still experiencing their worst work ever, as they have been for the past 3 weeks. Today was +6.2% (+2,519), which is, of course, a new high water mark for daily gains in the state. California and Texas continue to lead in raw cases added for the U.S. at +3,735 and +3,516 respectively. Not record breaking for single day gains in either case, but still daily gains that would have been unprecedented two weeks ago. Both states continue to experience their worst weeks of Covid-19.
June 17, 2020 - “Big wheels keep on turning…”
California reported its highest single day of new cases to date with +4,390 cases (+2.8%). Texas reported their second highest gain ever with +3,129 new cases after yesterday's +4,098. To make matters worse, the state reported an average of +803 daily cases in April and +1,130 cases in May, but June has jumped 64% to +1,850 new cases a day. June is on track to double May. Arizona is the fastest growing state in the U.S., reporting a +4.7% increase from +1,827 new cases. Utah reported just a 2.7% daily growth rate on +407 cases, but with a very low number of tests per cases (7.4), the state may have a significant number of cases untested and undiagnosed.
June 16, 2020
Texas was the top gainer in new cases +4,098 (+4.6% growth rate) in the U.S., followed by California with +3,261 cases (+2.1%). Arizona leads the country with the highest daily growth rate +6.5% (+2,932 cases). Oregon had the second highest daily growth rate at +4.8% (+278 cases), a significant upswing from an average of 50 new cases per week since April.
June 15, 2020
Today’s data shows that Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas are all experiencing their worst week to date in terms of Covid-19 cases growth. Nevada, Utah, Georgia, Mississippi, and Wyoming are reporting 75% of their worst week to date, but fortunately all are trending mostly down.
June 14, 2020
South Carolina +4.7% (+840) leads the nation in single day growth for the first time ever. The state is on track in June to triple the cases gained during May. Alabama +4.2%, Arizona +3.6%, and Arkansas +3.4% all continue to grow quickly, but markedly slower than the end of last week. Tennessee posted its first +3.0% daily growth day since early May with +891 cases.
June 13, 2020
Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas had increases of at least +4.5%, nearly matching yesterday’s record breaking numbers. Florida continues to post modest 3.5%+ gains and is on track to add twice as many cases total in June as were added in May. Kentucky has been a solid gainer for the past week and is now on track to see June as their worst month of COVID-19 to date.
June 12, 2020
Today three states broke their single day growth record with new cases: Arkansas +6.8% (+731 cases); Arizona +5.3% (+1,654 cases); and Mississippi 3.3% (+608 cases). In addition, South Carolina sees another sizable jump +4.4% (+729 cases), as does North Carolina +4.5% (+1,1768 cases).
June 11, 2020 - Something about the A States...
Until today, new cases in Alabama had been trending on the same pace as May. Now the state, along with Alaska, Arizona, and Arkansas, are heading toward their worst months to date.
June 10, 2020
Arizona replaced Arkansas as the state with the highest growth rate: 5.5% (+1,556). Arizona performed well in the early stages of the pandemic, having reporting only 1,053 cases in March and 7,288 in April. In May, however, Arizona added nearly 12,000 cases and has already added almost 10,000 in the first third of June. Looks like Arizona will be one of the many states who see a more significant second wave of cases. In happier news, New York and New Jersey continue to demonstrate their effectiveness in dealing with Covid-19. Despite experiencing the absolute worst of the first wave, the New York area has managed to turn it around. Today the states added only 1,224 cases between them. For context, that's fewer than Texas, California, Arizona, and Florida.
June 9, 2020
Arkansas once again leads the nation for day over day case gain at 3.5% (+340), significantly more than the national average growth rate of 1.21%. Alaska has slowed their day over day growth, though the state has added more cases in the first 9 days of June than it did in all 31 days of May. Hawaii is in a similar situation, having added 33 cases already in June, compared to its May total of 30. Hawaii had one of the best May performances in the U.S., so it's concerning to see a potential resurgence.
June 8, 2020
Over the weekend many states did not report new data, so the nationwide % changes are smaller than they really are. Arizona had another remarkably high day of 5.7% (+1,438) daily case increase, by far the highest in the nation. Arkansas also reported a sizable bump of 3.6% (325).
June 5, 2020
Arizona continues to post increasingly large gains, reporting +1,579 (6.9%) new cases today, its highest number since early April. The state remains in Phase One of reopening, the policies of which first went into effect May 15. After reporting only 13,845 new tests, North Carolina added 1,289 new cases (a 9.3% increase). There are likely many more people positive with Covid-19 who have not yet been tested. Utah also spiked, reporting a 4.1% (+439) daily case growth on only 4,690 new tests which is a 9.3% positive rate.
June 3, 2020 - A deadly milestone
The number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, as reported by U.S. states and counties, topped 100,000 today. While there is debate over the exact definition of a death due to Covid-19, this milestone is a harrowing reminder of how severe the crisis has been nationwide.
Alaska reported another 18 cases (+3.7%) today, bringing the total new cases during the past four days to the same level of the entire month of May. Looks like the beginning of a second wave there.
Similarly, Arizona and Arkansas had the first and third largest new case growth rates today, reporting 4.6% and 3.2% respectively. These rates are well above the national average of 1.45%.
June 2, 2020 - A bad day to be a state starting with A
Arkansas and Arizona both reported one of their worst Covid-19 days ever. Total cases in Arkansas grew by 5% (+375) and Arizona had the highest growth in new cases in the nation at 5.6% (+1,127).
During the first 30 days of May, Alaska added 76 cases. Then in just three days (May 31 - June 2), new cases in Alaska grew 70% (+53). It seems very likely that Alaska will see a second wave of infections throughout June.
Alabama is the exception among the four As, reporting a break in their large gains during May with only a 1.2% (+228) case increase today.
April vs. May
Alaska, Hawaii, New Jersey, and New York showed the most improvement in new Covid-19 cases from April to May. Alaska went from 212 new cases in April to 96 in May. Hawaii added 394 cases in April but only 30 in May. New Jersey had 96, 397 new cases in April but only 39,255 for May.
Fifteen states had nearly identical performances in April and May, with less than a 20% difference between the two months: Colorado, Delaware, District of Columbia, Indiana, Georgia, Nevada, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oregon, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin saw extremely mild Aprils and devastating Mays. Minnesota in particular saw the worst of it, with a 430% increase in cases going from 4,447 in April to 19,120 new cases in May. Tennessee also saw a worse May than April, reporting 11,115 new cases this month compared to 8,052 new cases last month.
Week in Review
Despite significant gains in new cases in midwest and southern states, the U.S. added 20,814 cases this week, down significantly from the high of 31,327 during the week of April 6. This week also had the lowest daily average cases gained since the week of March 29.
May in Review
Overall, despite many smaller states having a worse May than they did April (in terms of cases gained), the major U.S. population centers saw a significantly better month in May than in April. With most large states performing well during May, we have seen fewer cases overall added in 30 days of May (696,739) than in the 30 days of April (902,875). These numbers appear to indicate that the overall nationwide performance can be viewed as positive for the month.
May 29, 2020
Minnesota continues to be an outlier with a high average daily growth rate of 5.27% new cases per day for the month. The state has added considerably more cases in May (daily average of 657) than in April (daily average of 129).
Nebraska is another midwest state experiencing its worst month in May. On average in April, Nebraska added on average 138 cases per day, while in May it has added an average of 335. Notably, Nebraska is one of the few states that never ordered "Shelter in Place" or "Stay at Home" orders.
May 27, 2020
Tennessee is only about 600 cases away from crossing above our projected number of cases for the state, an event that is likely to occur within the next few days.
Maryland has calmed down in terms of growth for the last two weeks with only a 2.39% growth rate on average, During the first two weeks of May the state was averaging a 3.65% daily growth.
May 26, 2020
Virginia once again broke its daily case reporting record with 1,615 cases reported on a single day, topping the prior record of 1,483 the day before. The state has averaged more than a 3% daily growth in cases for the last two weeks, and steadily continues to top our projections for the state.
Alabama also reported significant case gains with their second highest overall single day gain of 664 new cases. The state has maintained a 3.11% average growth rate for the month of May.
For the entire United States, the news is significantly brighter. For five days in a row the number of cases added has decreased, which is the longest run of decreasing days since the beginning of April. Today's reporting gives the U.S. a 1.07% growth rate (17,619 new cases) overall , which is the lowest this rate has been since May 1.
May 25, 2020
Alabama reported their second highest ever daily case gain today. The first and second highest single day case gains have both occurred in the past week for Alabama, and the state has maintained a nearly 3% daily case gain for the month of May. In the past week, Alabama has reported an average of 415 new cases per day, which is the highest one week average recorded since the start of April.
Virginia has continued to have an increasing rate of growth for the month of May, which is capped off by today's report with the single highest day of new cases reported since the start of April. The state reported a 3.93% overall case increase, which amounts to 1,483 actual cases in a single day. While it's possible some of these represent a catch up of late-reported numbers, even averaged out over the entire month Virginia has seen a daily increase of 875 cases compared to a daily increase of 494 cases across all of April.
May 24, 2020
Success stories in the U.S. include New York and New Jersey. After their initial struggles with Covid-19, policies and countermeasures in both states have proved effective. New Jersey averaged 6.93% (3,400 cases/day) daily growth rate for total cases throughout April, which has slowed to only 1.10% (1480 cases/day) for May. New York looked even better compared to their April performance of 5.30% (7,929 cases/day) dropping down to 0.72% (2381 cases/day) for daily cases gained in May. Both states remain in very early stages of reopening when compared to the rest of the US.
To the contrary, Alabama has a reverse pattern. For the last two weeks of April, Alabama gained 3.47% (188 cases/day) on a daily basis for total cases. In May, the rate has decreased to 3.04%, and the absolute number of cases gained jumped up to 309 representing a significant increase in the number of active cases throughout the state.
May 23, 2020
The stories for today are that of consistent growth in the number of Covid-19 cases across many U.S. states. Alabama's total cases has continued to grow at a consistent 3.5% daily. The state also has one of the nation's most aggressive reopening plans, with restaurants opened (with social distancing in effect) since May 11 and water parks reopening at the end of May.
Minnesota has continued to post incredibly high growth rates on a daily basis. Today was another 4.4% (+840 cases) day for the state. Despite still fairly high growth rates, the state has started to reign in the growth rate down during May. The first week of May had a whopping 9% daily cases growth average, while the prior week had a considerably more modest 4.1%.
May 22, 2020
Kansas and Minnesota lead the U.S. for daily case gains. Kansas had a 4.9% growth in total cases (+419). Their reporting tends to lump multiple days of reports together, so they may just be catching up. Minnesota continues to rise precipitously as noted earlier this week, adding 4.4% (+805) new cases and 4.1% more deaths (+33) in the wake of their Phase 2 reopening on Monday May 18.
West Virginia on 5/20 and 5/22 reported its highest daily case rates since early April, seeing a significant spike in the last week. The state recently opened up gyms, fitness centers, and sports training facilities on May 18 as a part of their phased reopening.
May 21, 2020
Today brought a 9% (+437) jump in cases for Arkansas and a 6.4% (+134) cases for North Dakota, which are the top 2 percentage gains across the United States for today. These numbers are significantly higher than today's nationwide average of 2.1%.
Tennessee gained 429 confirmed cases today with an additional 408 recoveries as we head towards phase 2 reopening in both Davidson (Nashville) and Knox counties (Knoxville) early next week. Recoveries and confirmed cases have remained approximately even for the past week in the state indicating active cases remain steady.
May 20, 2020
Virginia and Minnesota both have growth rates that have remained consistently high, and both appear to be on track to surpass our maximum projection for their total cases within the next week or so.
Tennessee and New York, on the other hand, look to be success stories. For New York, three of the four fewest daily cases reported have been in the last week. Yesterday, Tennessee, in fact, had five times as many recoveries as new cases reported. There were approximately 7,900 tests performed with 154 returned positive, which is only about a 2% success rate.
May 19, 2020
Tennessee saw recoveries increase 11% (+1083) compared to cases increasing by 5.7% (+990). Nationally, we've seen a trend of fewer positive cases per test. In April, about 18% of all tests were positive, while in the past week that number has gone down to about 6% in the last week.