COVID-19 Data Briefs

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We have discontinued our daily collection and analysis of state and county reported data related to the Covid-19 coronavirus. This information is still available from state and local health agencies, national and local media, and the CDC. This change will allow us more time to do what we do best: assisting our clients in solving complex problems with actionable insights that lead to growth. We will periodically present new Coronavirus briefs and reports that further validate scientific findings or when we discover new insights that require further exploration through advanced analytics.

Spread of Active Covid-19 Cases across the Country

We continue our analysis of Covid-19 data reported by state and local health agencies with a look at Active Cases: the number of cases reported by the state during the prior 14 days.

Active Cases per 100,000 Population
Thanks to the work of scientists around the world, we are learning more each day about the coronavirus. We now have reliable information about the typical length of a Covid-19 infection, which helps us estimate the current number of active cases per state. As we see each state's total of active cases ebb and flow over time, the darker the color of a state equates to a higher number of active cases. This helps us compare the severity of the disease in states in different regions of the country.

In the table below and its appendix, we ranked all 50 states and the District of Columbia by their ratio of active cases per 100,000 population. We also note their highest level (Max) and when that occurred. Eighteen states hit their highest level during the last week of June.

Leading the way was Arizona with 416 active cases rate per 100K population, nearly double the rate for second place (South Carolina). While these rates are severe, they don't come close to the highest rate of 712 active cases per population recorded by New York in mid-April.

Another troublesome example is Florida, currently experiencing a peak period with 196 active cases active per 100,000 people. The severity of this peak is magnified because of Florida's large population (3rd largest in U.S.) and that its population has the 5th oldest median age in the U.S., placing its residents in the above average group at risk for severe cases of Covid-19.

State Population Active per 100K Active Cases Max Active Cases Max Active per 100K Date of Max Active
U.S. 332,417,793 114 379,127 466,315 140 4/13
Arizona 7,234,773 416 30,122 30,122 416 6/24
South Carolina 5,195,563 233 12,083 12,083 233 6/24
Arkansa 3,086,841 227 7,007 7,007 227 6/24
Alabama 5,002,985 200 9,998 9,998 200 6/24
Florida 21,239,528 196 41,643 41,643 196 6/24
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
West Virginia 1,895,632 23 436 566 30 4/19
Vermont 647,575 14 89 605 93 4/8
Hawaii 1,449,919 9 134 491 34 4/14

View the entire table of active cases per state's 100,000 population.

Tests per Cases Ratio
One of the striking characteristics of the recent rise in Covid-19 cases is how quickly the country's testing numbers have been outpaced by an increasing number of cases. To illustrate and evaluate current situations, we looked at each state's Tests per Cases (TpC) ratio, which illustrates the extent to which a state's testing program is capturing significant coverage of the state's coronavirus patients.

If a states' TpC ratio decreases even as it administers more tests each day, we know that the number of cases is increasing faster than the number of tests. A low TpC indicates that more tests are needed in order to better understand the spread of the disease with the state. As the TpC approaches 1, it is evident that more people need to be tested.

In the table below, we take a look at the TpC ratio across the U.S. during a recent 16-day period.

Date
New Tests Completed
Tests per Cases Ratio
June 10
493,716
24.50
June 11
474,383
20.90
June 12
636,807
24.63
June 13
547,069
21.58
June 14
470,102
23.68
June 15
470,285
24.08
June 16
441,404
18.12
June 17
470,339
18.90
June 18
520,674
19.93
June 19
631,160
20.53
June 20
617,325
19.37
June 21
507,093
18.47
June 22
511,661
17.72
June 23
491,477
14.07
June 24
523,704
14.63
June 25
663,680
17.08

Tests per Cases Predicting Future Cases
Another insightful use of the Tests per Cases ratio is to see when the downturn in TpC occurs relative to the spike in reported cases. To illustrate, let's look at the results in two states: Arizona and Florida.

Arizona
Active Cases
Average TpC Ratio
Week of May 10
5,032
24.96
Week of May 17
5,208
25.10
Week of May 24
5,332
18.35
Week of May 31
8,012
11.58
Week of June 7
14,228
9.10
Week of June 14
20,861
6.25

As you see above in the week of May 24, Arizona’s TpC drops significantly (6.75 points) from 25.10 to 18.35 with only a slight uptick in the number of active cases. The following week sees a massive jump in cases from 5,332 to 8,012, despite a similar drop (6.77 points) in the TpC. We see a similar example in Florida.

Florida
Active Cases
Average TpC Ratio
Week of May 10
9,274
25.46
Week of May 17
9,859
46.74
Week of May 24
10,421
28.63
Week of May 31
11,633
24.81
Week of June 7
16,967
17.15
Week of June 14
26,591
8.93

In Florida there is a precipitous drop of the TpC ratio between the weeks of May 17 and May 24, a decrease of 18.11 points with only a slight increase in active cases (562). The following week of May 31 produces 1,200 new cases and another drop in the TpC of 3.82 points. The last two weeks continue to show large drops in the state's TpC ratio and large increases of active cases.

The correlation between an abrupt drop in TpC and a sharp rise in active cases is shown in many states since the reopening of some states just after Memorial Day weekend. Recently, there have been headlines regarding regional health resources being overwhelmed.

The take-away from these tables is that the TpC ratio remains a significant predictor of future active Covid-19 cases, both in individual states and across the nation as a whole.

Appendices

Active Cases per 100,00 Population
In the table below, we ranked all 50 states and the District of Columbia by their ratio of active cases per 100,000 population. We also note their highest level (Max) and when that occurred. Eighteen states hit their highest level during the last week of June.

State Population Active per 100K Active Cases Max Active Cases Max Active per 100K Date of Max Active
U.S. 332,417,793 114 379,127 466,315 140 4/13
Arizona 7,234,773 416 30,122 30,122 416 6/24
South Carolina 5,195,563 233 12,083 12,083 233 6/24
Arkansas 3,086,841 227 7,007 7,007 227 6/24
Alabama 5,002,985 200 9,998 9,998 200 6/24
Florida 21,239,528 196 41,643 41,643 196 6/24
Utah 3,257,899 182 5,920 5,920 182 6/24
Louisiana 4,812,773 176 8,447 17,710 368 4/13
North Carolina 10,609,155 170 18,003 18,003 170 6/24
Mississippi 3,053,165 162 4,941 4,941 162 6/24
Texas 29,443,411 157 46,164 46,164 157 6/24
Georgia 10,655,025 145 15,401 15,401 145 6/24
California 39,813,541 141 56,310 56,310 141 6/24
Tennessee 6,885,931 136 9,366 9,366 136 6/24
Nevada 3,088,888 136 4,198 4,198 136 6/24
Iowa 3,236,212 127 4,114 7,135 220 5/7
Nebraska 1,970,921 111 2,196 5,787 294 5/18
Oklahoma 4,031,901 100 4,030 4,030 100 6/24
Maryland 6,120,651 96 5,872 14,429 236 5/19
Minnesota 5,715,341 86 4,894 9,547 167 5/27
Virginia 8,632,203 85 7,337 14,437 167 6/7
District of Columbia 702,321 84 591 2,497 356 5/11
Delaware 999,941 83 833 2,701 270 5/9
New Mexico 2,159,832 81 1,740 2,246 104 5/11
Rhode Island 1,071,101 79 850 2,497 356 5/11
Idaho 1,806,180 77 1,385 1,385 77 6/24
Kansas 2,966,501 73 2,158 3,810 128 5/10
Washington 7,608,571 72 5,515 7,495 99 4/10
Wisconsin 5,881,444 71 4,170 6,043 103 5/30
Montana 1,083,719 71 4,170 6,043 103 5/30
Indiana 6,788,130 71 4,803 9,466 139 5/8
South Dakota 899,158 69 621 1,521 169 4/25
Illinois 12,915,181 67 8,703 35,019 271 5/14
Ohio 11,805,053 61 7,184 9,636 82 5/1
Missouri 6,255,541 59 3,681 3,681 59 6/24
Oregon 4,246,351 56 2,384 2,384 56 6/24
Kentucky 4,582,010 54 2,480 2,905 63 06/8
North Dakota 788,958 53 421 927 117 5/24
Massachusetts 6,958,093 50 3,455 30,488 438 4/25
New Jersey 9,127,159 50 4,546 55,938 613 4/13
Pennsylvania 13,012,438 49 6,345 21,448 165 4/13
New York 20,030,453 47 9,510 142,713 712 4/13
Colorado 5,793,770 46 2,656 7,109 123 5/7
Connecticut 3,632,883 43 1,566 13,688 377 4/22
Wyoming 601,166 41 248 248 41 6/24
Michigan 10,097,897 33 3,373 22,027 218 4/13
New Hampshire 1,386,718 30 420 1,245 90 5/13
Maine 1,381,874 27 380 638 46 5/31
Alaska 755,517 26 199 226 30 4/8
West Virginia 1,895,632 23 436 566 30 4/19
Vermont 647,575 14 89 605 93 4/8
Hawaii 1,449,919 9 134 491 34 4/14

Tests per Cases Ratio by State - Trailing 7 Days
In the table before, we compare the ratio of Tests per Cases during the seven days ending June 24, 2020. Note that the higher the number, the greater the coverage of testing for Covid-19 throughout the entire state. For this data set, we included the calculated ratio for the entire United States as well as the calculated ratio for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

State
Trailing Seven Day Tests per Cases
United States
17.41
South Dakota
2.39
Mississippi
4.26
Arizona
5.27
Kansas
6.56
Florida
7.48
South Carolina
7.74
Utah
8.15
Idaho
9.86
Alabama
9.93
Texas
9.98
Nevada
11.08
Arkansas
12.26
Georgia
12.58
Louisiana
12.84
North Carolina
13.94
Oklahoma
14.67
Oregon
15.67
Iowa
15.72
Tennessee
15.87
Missouri
17.49
Washington
18.14
Nebraska
18.39
California
19.19
Ohio
22.16
Pennsylvania
22.81
Colorado
23.25
Delaware
26.66
Maryland
26.70
Virginia
26.94
Indiana
27.42
Kentucky
28.20
Wisconsin
29.53
Minnesota
33.15
Rhode Island
36.58
Wyoming
37.43
Illinois
38.06
New Mexico
39.51
North Dakota
41.93
Massachusetts
46.31
Connecticut
47.34
Michigan
47.65
New Hampshire
53.80
District of Columbia
59.38
West Virginia
61.05
Maine
68.67
New Jersey
74.34
Hawaii
82.55
Montana
88.11
New York
94.32
Alaska
206.45
Vermont
233.53

Stay safe during these times
These statistics reiterate the fact that individuals, especially with underlying health conditions, should continue to shelter at home whenever possible and take extra precautions when in large crowds. Wear a mask, wash your hands often, and continue to monitor the number of Covid-19 cases in your area.

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